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微软证明科技业现金的价值必须打折扣
时间:2013-12-23 17:55 来源:美国资讯网
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    微软让世人看到,为什么科技业手上庞大现金的价值应该打折来看.根据CNBC的报导,微软或许会拿出30亿美元,资助杠杆收购戴尔的行动.当然,戴尔很便宜划算,而微软的投资纪录也不差.但拿钱投资戴尔,也等于是拿走了原本可以用来还给股东、好弥补公司缺陷并延缓衰败的钱.
    最近几年微软开始动用手上大量现金--这些现金目前高达650亿美元--用于一些混合了策略性及财务性目标的投资案.去年4月,微软向邦诺(Barnes & Noble)的电子书Nook及大学事业注资3亿美元.大约两年前,微软同意补助诺基亚行情的手机生产成本,以换取诺基亚智慧型手机使用微软的Windows.而2007年时,微软向Facebook投资了2.4亿美元.
这些投资都有一个类似的目的.微软希望在平板、智慧型手机及社群网路占有一席之地.目前为止,这些投资的财务面收获胜过策略面,主要是因为微软的Facebook持股价值增加三倍以上.但微软在这三个市场仍然只是一个小角色.
    如果投资戴尔,最好的结果顶多也是如此.戴尔估值已经极低,因此或许会有不错的投资报酬.但从策略面来看,就比较难找到投资的理由.或许戴 尔的平板电脑会采用微软的Windows 9,但戴尔在移动装置方面的努力从来就没有什么好成绩.此外,如果微软向戴尔注资,可能会得罪其他个人电脑对手,像是惠普及联想,而这两家都是微软的大客户.
    微软更大的问题在于个人电脑市场正以一年10%的速度下滑.投资经营不善的公司,以鼓励这些公司用微软的移动产品,这看起来像是病急乱投医.随着微软面对的压力升高,它随便投资的可能性也增加.
    微软的投资记录显示,握有大量现金不是弥补科技公司缺失的好方法.微软股东并没有受到忽视,过去10年微软派发股息和回购股票大约花了 1,800亿美元.可惜的是,如果微软没有花大钱尝试跨入新市场,像是搜索、游戏机及移动装置,股东原本可以回收更多报酬.坐拥太多财富,有时是要付出代 价的.以苹果为例,苹果拥有1,200亿美元现金,公司目前正在稳定成长,但市盈率(本益比)只有区区九倍.科技公司对手上现金愈是做出不良决定或是毫无动作,就愈不难理解市场对这些公司的怀疑态度

Breakingviews: Microsoft shows why tech cash needs a discount

Microsoft shows why tech cash piles should be valued at a discount. The software giant may put up $3 billion to fund a leveraged buyout of Dell, according to CNBC. Sure, the PC maker is cheap and Microsoft's investment record isn't bad. But a Dell financing would divert money that could be returned to shareholders to plug holes and postpone obsolescence.

In recent years Microsoft has dipped into its pile of greenbacks - currently $65 billion - to pay for investments that blend strategic and financial goals. In April, it injected $300 million into Barnes & Noble's Nook and college businesses. About two years ago, Microsoft agreed to subsidize Nokia's cost of producing handsets in exchange for the Finns putting Windows on its smartphones. And in 2007 it pumped $240 million in Facebook.

The deals had a similar purpose. Microsoft wanted to gain ground in tablets, smartphones and social networking. So far, these are stacking up better financially than strategically, mostly thanks to its Facebook stake more than quadrupling in value. But Microsoft remains a small player in these three markets.

Any Dell deal promises more of the same, at best. The PC firm is so cheap that it may generate a good return. But it's harder to see strategic merit. Perhaps Dell would use Windows 9 in its tablets, but Dell's mobile efforts have never amounted to much. Moreover, putting capital into Dell might antagonize PC-producing rivals like HP and Lenovo, both big Microsoft clients.
Microsoft's bigger problem is that the PC market is declining by 10 percent a year. Making deals with struggling companies to encourage them to use its mobile products looks desperate. As the pressure on Microsoft increases, so will the temptation to be more cavalier with its investments.

Microsoft's record suggests cash hoards are a poor way to plug holes in tech dykes. Shareholders have at least not been ignored, receiving some $180 billion in dividends and buybacks over the past decade. Unfortunately, they could have received far more had Microsoft avoided costly attempts to break into new markets like search, video game consoles and mobile devices. And sitting on too much treasure can have a price. Take Apple, which has $120 billion of cash, is growing nicely yet trades at just nine times this year's estimated earnings. The more tech companies make no or bad decisions about their cash, the easier it is to understand such skepticism.

( 编辑:Lingli)
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