消费科技从未停止过发展的脚步。有些新产品与设备成了游戏规则改变者﹐如苹果(Apple AAPL  )的iPhone和iPad。有些产品则在不断精益求精﹐如谷歌(Google GOOG )安卓系统(Android)的各个后续版本。还有的大胆创新﹐如微软(Microsoft MSFT )的新操作系统Windows 8﹐致力于将平板计算机和传统PC体验整合到一个操作系统中。但新的产品总是会不断涌现﹐不仅来自大企业﹐也来自小公司。
    以下是消费者在2013年可能会看到的一些产品或趋势﹐其中一些在过去一年就开始成形﹐但在新的一年趋势会更明显。平板计算机vsPC计算机包括最新Mini在内的苹果iPad产品线继续主宰着平板计算机市场﹐安卓平板计算机也最终受到了欢迎。但这个领域更大的一个趋势是﹐平板计算机将继续侵蚀笔记本计算机的市场份额。
    现在消费者正越来越多地使用平板计算机来完成此前笔记本计算机担任的工作。传统计算机并没有消亡﹐它们依然承担着一些职责﹐例如大容量内容的创建﹐这方面它们比平 板计算机表现更好。但不管怎样﹐消费者更新笔记本的频率会放缓﹐而更愿意在平板计算机上支出。平板计算机如今也在逐渐取代另一项设备：专门的电子阅读器。很多分 析师此前曾经预计﹐Windows 8会停止或扭转这一趋势﹐或许它也能够做到这点。但从早期迹象来看﹐情况并不令人乐观。整合软硬件与 此同时﹐另一大趋势正在浮现。
    其他公司正在开始效仿“苹果模式”﹐即一家公司打造整个设备──硬件、操作系统、核心应用以及网络生态系统。去年10月﹐微 软发布了其首部计算机──Surface平板计算机。这个月微软还会推出性能更为强劲的第二个版本。如果今年微软推出自己的智能手机﹐我也不会感到意外。谷 歌也在沿着苹果的方向前行。该公司目前销售着三款Nexus品牌的设备﹐包括一款智能手机和两款平板计算机。这些产品由合作伙伴公司生产﹐但是是由谷歌设计 的。不过﹐鉴于谷歌现在已经有了自己的硬件公司摩托罗拉移动(Motorola Mobility)﹐我预计他们会进一步深入地整合软硬件。摩托罗拉最近入驻了不少前谷歌的管理人士﹐据报道他们正在打造更为先进的、与安卓系统紧密整合 的新硬件设备。重新审视电视
    Apple
    看什么﹕除暸苹果电视的界面（图示）﹐外界预计苹果将让看电视变得更简单。
三星和其他一些公司已经有可以连接互联网的电视机﹐这些电视可以在线播放网络视频﹐运行类似平板计算机应用程序的应用﹐而不需要额外的机顶盒。但我觉得这些产品都比较笨拙﹐它们的“智能电视”功能也没有得到消费者的普遍接受。或许在今年﹐时机就会成熟了。这 方面最值得期待的是苹果﹐他们一直在努力解决智能电视的问题。
    预计苹果今年会推出传言许久的智能电视产品﹐极大地简化电视功能﹐流畅整合网络与有线电视内 容。包括笔者在内的很多人之前都以为苹果会在去年发布该产品﹐但据称苹果在与媒体公司商谈内容版权问题上遇到了麻烦。与此同时﹐苹果体型小巧、售价99美 元的Apple Tv机顶盒虽然并没大卖﹐但也在逐渐获得青睐。原因之一是﹐苹果在旗下笔记本、平板计算机和智能手机内嵌了一项叫做AirPlay的功能﹐可以通过 Apple Tv机顶盒将音频和视频无线传输到电视上进行播放。
    Republic Wireless
    Republic Wireless针对摩托罗拉Defy XT手机推出了19美元的包月套餐。
智能手机价格与资费下调在发达国家﹐智能手机已经随处可见﹐但大多数仍然价格不菲──签下两年合约﹐获得运营商补贴后﹐售价仍在200美元左右。每月服务资费动辄接近或超过100美元﹐尤其是如果你经常使用数据服务的话﹐而数据服务正是智能手机的核心价值所在。当 然﹐市场上还有一些智能手机售价在99美元或49美元﹐甚至免费提供合约机。这些手机通常款式较老﹐功能不够﹐或者不够热门。但我预计﹐2013年市场会 出现价格更低、性能更好的智能手机﹐尤其是那些运行主流安卓系统的智能手机﹐还有外形新颖而又售价较低的微软Windows Phone手机。此 外﹐一些公司正开始提供月资费很低的套餐。例如Republic Wireless就针对摩托罗拉Defy XT手机推出了包月套餐﹐19美元提供无限制通话、短信和数据服务﹐这款手机使用的是版本较老的安卓软件﹐但经过了调整﹐有Wi-Fi时就通过网络通话﹐ 不必通过资费较贵的运营商网络。音乐播放器精品化
    Astell & Kern
    售价700美元的播放器Astell & Kern AK100可以播放更加高保真的数字音乐。
发烧友和录音师一直不喜欢如今充斥于iPod和智能手机的压缩音乐文件。他们抱怨这些音乐文件丢失了原有录音的丰富音色﹐一方面是因为这些音乐格式为了尽可能减少存储空间和下载时间进行了优化﹐另一方面是因为这些压缩文件通常是由CD转录的﹐而不是通过录音室母带。因 此﹐在2013年﹐市场会迎来一种新的可播放高质量音乐的便携音乐播放器。韩国电子产品公司艾利和(iRiver)就推出了一款售价700美元的播放器 Astell & Kern AK100﹐可以播放更加高保真的数字音乐。传奇摇滚艺人尼尔•杨(Neil Young)的第二家公司Pono也在研发类似的产品。但除了价格偏高以外﹐这些产品还有另一大劣势：它们的音乐文件可能比标准化数字音乐大10至20倍 ﹐所以在同等内存情况下﹐存储的音乐数量也较少。健身与健康监测产品
    BASIS Science, Inc.
    Basis手表是一款腕带监测产品﹐它可以测量心率。
在 2012年﹐市场已经出现了Nike+ FuelBand以及Jawbone Up之类的内嵌传感器的腕带产品﹐可以测量消费者一天走的步数、睡眠情况以及其他健康与健身指标。我预计这个趋势今年还将延续﹐市场会迎来更多类型、更为 精密的传感产品。Basis手表就是这样的新产品﹐该产品背面内嵌了传感器﹐可以测量心率。所有这些产品都会与移动或者网络应用关联﹐从而跟踪记录数据﹐ 提供相关建议。互联网控制一切我预计2013年还有一大趋势就是﹐借助应用和设备的扩张﹐人们可以通过低功耗的网络、智能手机或平板计算机﹐无线操控从灯泡到电器的诸多日常用品。我们可能还会看到更多智能设备﹐类似于通过Wi-Fi联网的Nest智能温度调节器。以上预测只是2013年消费科技发展可能会有的一些趋势。当然﹐还有其他一些显著的趋势﹐最为明显的就是人们日益依靠云或远程服务器来存储内容及协同工作。但有一点是肯定的：肯定会出现一些令人意外的趋势是本文未能预测到的。

2013: Talk Gets Cheaper, TV Gets Smarter

Personal technology never stops changing. Some new products and services are game changers, like Apple's AAPL iPhone and iPad. Others are clever twists or refinements, like each successive version of Google's GOOG Android platform, which gets better and better. Others are bold gambles, like Microsoft's MSFT  new Windows 8, which hopes to combine both a tablet experience and a traditional PC environment in one operating system. But there's always something new, from large companies and small ones.

So here are a few things consumers will likely see in technology in 2013. Many of these began to take shape in the past year, but will be stronger trends in the new year.

Tablets vs. PCs

While the iPad line, including the new Mini, continues to dominate the tablet market, Android-based tablets are finally gaining traction. But the bigger story is that tablets will continue to erode the role of laptop PCs.

Consumers are using tablets for more and more tasks formerly performed by laptops. Traditional computers aren't going away—they still do certain tasks, like heavy content creation, better than tablets. But consumers seem, at the very least, to be replacing their laptops less often and spending discretionary funds on tablets, which are gradually replacing another device: the dedicated e-reader. Many analysts had expected Windows 8 to halt or reverse this trend, and it may yet do so. But early indications aren't encouraging for that outcome.

Integrating Hardware and Software

Meanwhile, another big trend is emerging: Apple's model of one company making the entire device—hardware, operating system, core apps and an online ecosystem—is beginning to take hold elsewhere. In October, Microsoft unveiled its first computer, the Surface tablet. The company will follow it up as soon as this month with a second, more powerful version. I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft also made its own smartphone this year.

Google is also moving in Apple's direction. It now sells three devices—a smartphone and two tablets—under its Nexus brand. These products are built by partner companies, but designed by Google. Now that Google owns its own hardware company, Motorola Mobility, I expect it to get deeper into the integrated model. Motorola, MSI freshly stocked with former Google executives, is reported to be building advanced new hardware devices tightly integrated with Android.

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Apple

What to Watch: In addition to its Apple TV interface, left, Apple is expected to try to further simplify television viewing.

Rethinking Television

Samsung and others already make TVs that can connect to the Internet, and stream Internet video and run tablet-type apps, without any special set-top box. But I find them clumsy, and their "smart TV" functions haven't taken off with consumers yet. This may be the year they do.

The biggest expectation is that Apple, which has been working hard on the problem, will finally unveil its long-rumored TV this year, with the goal of greatly simplifying the TV and smoothly melding Internet and cable content. Many, including me, thought it might appear in 2012, but the company reportedly ran into difficulties in negotiating with media companies for content rights. Meanwhile, Apple's tiny, $99 Apple TV box, while still a relatively small seller, is gaining popularity, partly because the company has built into its laptops, tablets and phones a feature called AirPlay which can use an Apple TV box to wirelessly stream audio and video to a TV.

Republic Wireless

Republic Wireless offers the Defy XT with a $19 unlimited plan.

Cheaper Smartphones and Plans

Smartphones are everywhere in the developed world, but most are still expensive—around $200 after a carrier subsidy that requires a two-year contract. And the monthly service fees can easily approach or exceed $100, especially if you use a lot of data, which is the very essence of a smartphone's purpose.

There are already some smartphones, usually older, less capable or less popular models, available for $99 or $49 or even free with a contract. But I expect to see better smartphones at lower prices in 2013, especially those running the dominant Android platform, and the handsome, but low-selling Windows Phone platform from Microsoft.

In addition, some companies are beginning to offer really cheap monthly plans. One example: Republic Wireless, which offers unlimited voice, text and data for $19 a month on a small, Android phone, the Motorola Defy XT, using older software that has been modified to make voice calls where possible over Wi-Fi instead of a costlier carrier network.

Astell & Kern

The $700 Astell & Kern AK100 plays much higher fidelity digital music.

Costlier, Better Music Players

Audiophiles and recording artists have never much liked the compressed music files that now fill every iPod and smartphone. They complain that the richness of the original recording is lost because the song files are optimized for minimum space and download time, and because they are often made from CDs, not from the master studio tapes.

So in 2013, there will be a push to sell a new kind of portable music player that can handle high quality music. The Korean electronics company, iRiver, has introduced the Astell & Kern AK100, a $700 player that can play much higher fidelity digital music. The legendary rocker Neil Young is backing a second venture, Pono, which is doing something similar. In addition to the price, there's another downside: The files can be 10 to 20 times as large as standard digital songs, so many fewer tracks fit in a given amount of memory.

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BASIS Science, Inc.

The Basis, part of the crop of new wristband monitors, measures resting heart rate.

Fitness and Health Monitors

In 2012, sensor-packed wristbands like the Nike+ FuelBand and the Jawbone Up were introduced to measure how many steps people take in a day, how well they sleep, and other indicators of health and fitness. I expect this trend to continue in 2013, in different forms and with more sophisticated sensors. One new product, the Basis, is a watch with sensors on the back that measures resting heart rate. All of these devices tie into mobile apps or Web-based dashboards to track progress and offer advice.

Internet-Controlled Everything

Another trend I expect to see in 2013 is an expansion of apps and devices that let people wirelessly control many everyday objects, from light bulbs to appliances, using low-powered networks and smartphones or tablets. And we'll likely see more smart devices with such intelligence built in, similar to the Nest intelligent thermostat, which is Wi-Fi powered.
These are just a few of the trends likely to mark the consumer tech landscape in 2013. Others will also be prominent, most notably the continued reliance on the cloud, or remote servers, to store content and work collaboratively. One thing is sure: There are certain to be developments that will surprise us all, and can't be forecast here.