Faced with the task of cutting USD12 billion a year from its budget under sequestration, the US Air Force (USAF) appears to be moving closer to a decision to cut its Fairchild-Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet.

General Mark Welsh, the USAF chief of staff, said on 11 December that divesting from entire fleets of aircraft may be the only way to achieve the level of savings required, and the A-10 is a prime candidate.

"We looked at divesture of fleets of airplanes because it is one of the very few practical ways to get at dollar signs with a B [for billion] behind them," Gen Welsh told an audience at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC. "If you look at those fleets of airplanes, there are not that many we have that we can actually divest and create savings."

The A-10 is a top contender for cuts because it performs close air support (CAS), a mission that has proven critical in Afghanistan, but one that Gen Welsh argued could also be performed by other aircraft. More than 70% of CAS missions in Afghanistan are performed by aircraft other than the A-10, such as the F-16 Fighting Falcon, he said.

He also noted that the USAF has always planned to replace the A-10 with the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, a multirole aircraft that is expected to reach initial operational capability in the USAF in 2016.

"Do I want to get rid of the A-10? No. Can I afford to keep everything we have right now and pay a USD12 billion dollar bill? No," said Gen Welsh.

Cutting the A-10 fleet - as well as the logistics and infrastructure that supports it - is expected to net a savings of USD3.7 billion according to Gen Welsh.

The service would have to shut down three to four times as many F-16 squadrons to achieve the same level of savings, he said, and at that point the USAF would not be equipped to do its air superiority mission.

Another option would be to cut the KC-10 fleet, said Gen Welsh. However, he noted that General Raymond Odierno, the US Army's chief of staff, would oppose that measure since the shrinking size of the army will require forces to respond more quickly to events across the globe, relying on air mobility to do so. Gen Welsh said that combatant commanders also were likely to reject efforts to cut the USAF's intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets, which have proven critical in combat, as well as command-and-control functions.

The situation means that the time may have finally come to cut the A-10, a single-role CAS aircraft with no air-to-air capabilities that has always held a tenuous position in the USAF.

Critics have long questioned whether the A-10 really contributes to the type of high-end conflicts around which the service has built its core missions, which include air and space superiority; ISR; rapid global mobility; global strike; and command and control.

"What do you give up to keep the A-10?" asked Gen Welsh.

COMMENT
The USAF will not have the final word on whether to cut the A-10. Civilian US defence officials are weighing in on the USAF's budget plans, as are members of the US Congress, some of whom vociferously oppose shutting down the A-10 fleet.

A-10 supporters argue that not even the F-35 can truly replace the aircraft - nicknamed the 'Warthog' for its ugly and intimidating appearance - in a low intensity conflict. The aircraft is known for being able to take a beating in the face of ground fire while carrying out its air-to-ground mission with devastating effects. This is due in large part to its GAU-8 Avenger 30 mm Gatling-gun.

The A-10 also enjoys an entrenched base of support among the pilots who fly it as well as among the maintenance, logistics, and other infrastructure elements that support it.

One example of the strong momentum in the A-10 programme is a recent contract award to Northrop Grumman to keep the A-10 fleet viable to 2028 and beyond.

Yet in the eyes of the USAF the A-10 has always suffered from a significant shortcoming: it is not designed for air superiority missions. Because it is ill-equipped to enter a highly contested air environment, it does not directly contribute to the USAF's core missions, which are all built around strategic, war-winning effects. Other aircraft like the F-35 can perform the A-10's CAS mission while also contributing to air superiority, which cannot be taken as a given in a high-end conflict.