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United States presidential election of 1992
Wikipedia | 2013-01-10 11:16
| United States presidential election, 1992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Bush/Quayle, Blue denotes those won by Clinton/Gore. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The United States presidential election of 1992 had three major candidates: Incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush; Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, and independent Texas businessman Ross Perot.
Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes, the economy was in a recession, and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War.
Clinton won a plurality in the popular vote, and a wide Electoral College margin. The election was a significant realigning election after three consecutive Republican landslides, as the Democratic Party picked up support in the Northeast, the Great Lakes region and California, and carried six states in Clinton's native South.
Overview
After the successful performance by U.S. and coalition forces in the Persian Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush's approval ratings were 89%. His re-election was considered very likely. As a result, several high profile candidates such as Mario Cuomo refused to seek the Democratic nomination. In addition, Senator Al Gore refused to seek the nomination due to the fact his son was struck by a car and was undergoing extensive surgery as well as physical therapy. However, several candidates such as Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, Bob Kerrey, Douglas Wilder and Bill Clinton chose to run.
U.S. Senator Tom Harkin (Iowa) ran as a populist liberal with labor union support. Former U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas (Massachusetts) highlighted his political independence and fiscal conservatism. Former California Governor Jerry Brown, who had run for the Democratic nomination in 1976 and 1980 while he was still Governor, declared a significant reform agenda, including Congressional term limits, campaign finance reform, and the adoption of a flat income tax. Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey was an attractive candidate based on his business and military background, but made several gaffes on the campaign trail. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton positioned himself as a centrist, or New Democrat. He was still relatively unknown nationally before the primary season. That quickly changed however, when a woman named Gennifer Flowers appeared in the press to reveal allegations of an affair. Clinton rebutted the story by appearing on 60 Minutes with his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The primary season began with U.S. Senator Tom Harkin winning his native Iowa as expected. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts won the New Hampshire primary on February 18 but Clinton's second place finish, helped by his speech labeling himself "The Comeback Kid," energized his campaign. Jerry Brown won the Maine caucus and Bob Kerrey won South Dakota. Clinton won his first primary in Georgia. Tsongas won the Utah and Maryland primaries and a caucus in Washington. Harkin won caucuses in Idaho and Minnesota while Jerry Brown won Colorado. Bob Kerrey dropped out two days later. Clinton won the South Carolina and Wyoming primaries and Tsongas won Arizona. Harkin dropped out. Jerry Brown won the Nevada caucus. Clinton swept nearly all of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 10 making him the solid front runner. Clinton won the Michigan and Illinois primaries. Tsongas dropped out after finishing 3rd in Michigan. Jerry Brown, however, began to pick up steam, aided by using a 1–800 number to receive funding from small donors. Brown scored surprising wins in Connecticut, Vermont and Alaska. As the race moved to the primaries in New York and Wisconsin, Brown had taken the lead in polls in both states. Then he made a serious gaffe by announcing to an audience of New York City's Jewish community that, if nominated, he would consider Reverend Jesse Jackson as a Vice Presidential candidate. Clinton won dramatically in New York (41%–26%) and closely in Wisconsin (37%–34%). Clinton then proceeded to win a long streak of primaries leading up to Jerry Brown's home state of California. Clinton won this primary 48% to 41% and secured the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
General election
Campaign
After Bill Clinton secured the Democratic Party's nomination in the spring of 1992, polls showed Ross Perot leading the race, followed by President Bush and Clinton in third place after a grueling nomination process. Two way trial heats between Bush and Clinton in early 1992 showed Bush in the lead, however. But as the economy continued to grow sour and the President's approval rating continued to slide, the Democrats began to rally around their nominee. On July 9, 1992, Clinton chose Tennessee Senator and former 1988 Presidential candidate Al Gore to be his running mate. As Governor Clinton's nomination acceptance speech approached, Ross Perot dropped out of the race, convinced that staying in the race with a "revitalized Democratic Party" would cause the race to be decided by the United States House of Representatives. Clinton gave his acceptance speech on July 17, 1992, promising to bring a "new covenant" to America, and to work to heal the gap that had developed between the rich and the poor during the Reagan/Bush years. The Clinton campaign received the biggest convention "bounce" in history which brought him from 25 percent in the spring, behind Bush and Perot, to 55 percent versus Bush's 31 percent.
After the convention, Clinton and Gore began a bus tour around the United States, while the Bush/Quayle campaign began to criticize Clinton's character, highlighting accusations of infidelity and draft dodging. The Bush campaign emphasized its foreign policy successes such as Desert Storm, and the end of the Cold War. Bush also contrasted his military service to Clinton's lack thereof, and criticized Clinton's lack of foreign policy expertise. However, as the economy was the main issue, Bush's campaign floundered across the nation, even in strongly Republican areas,and Clinton maintained leads with over 50 percent of the vote nationwide consistently, while Bush typically saw numbers in the upper 30s.As Bush's economic edge had evaporated, his campaign looked to energize its socially conservative base at the 1992 Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas. At the Convention, Bush's primary campaign opponent Pat Buchanan gave his famous "culture war" speech, criticizing Clinton and Gore's social progressiveness, and voicing skepticism on his "New Democrat" brand. After President Bush accepted his renomination, his campaign saw a small bounce in the polls, but this was short lived, as Clinton maintained his lead.The campaign continued with a lopsided lead for Clinton through September,until Ross Perot decided to re-enter the race.Ross Perot's re-entry in the race was welcome by the Bush campaign, as Fred Steeper, a poll taker for Bush, said, "He'll be important if we accomplish our goal, which is to draw even with Clinton." Initially, Perot's return saw the Texas billionaire's numbers stay low, until he was given the opportunity to participate in a trio of unprecedented three-man debates. The race narrowed, as Perot's numbers significantly improved as Clinton's numbers declined, while Bush's numbers remained more or less the same from earlier in the race as Perot and Bush began to hammer at Clinton on character issues once again.
Character issues
Many character issues were raised during the campaign, including allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam War, and had used marijuana, which Clinton claimed he had pretended to smoke, but "didn't inhale." Bush also accused Clinton of meeting with communists on a trip to Russia he took as a student. Clinton was often accused of being a philanderer by political opponents.
Allegations were also made that Bill Clinton had engaged in a long-term extramarital affair with Gennifer Flowers. Clinton denied ever having an affair with Flowers.
Results
On November 3, Bill Clinton won the election to be the 42nd President of the United States by a wide margin in the Electoral College, receiving 43 percent of the popular vote against Bush's 37 percent and Perot's 19%. It was the second largest electoral vote shift in American history (517 vote shift), after Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976 (560 vote shift). It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the popular vote. Only Washington, D.C. and Clinton's home state of Arkansas gave the majority of their votes to a single candidate in the entire country; the rest were won by pluralities of the vote.
President Bush's 37.4% was the lowest percentage total for a sitting president seeking re-election since William Howard Taft in 1912 (23.2%).The 1912 election was also a three way race between Taft, Woodrow Wilson, and Theodore Roosevelt.
It was also the lowest percentage for a major-party candidate since Alf Landon received 36.5% of the vote in 1936. Bush had a lower percentage of the popular vote than even Herbert Hoover who was defeated in 1932 (Hoover received 39.7%).
Independent candidate Ross Perot received 19,741,065 with 18.9 percent of the popular vote for President. The billionaire used his own money to advertise extensively, and is the only third-party candidate ever allowed into the nationally televised presidential debates with both major party candidates (Independent John Anderson debated Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980, but without Democrat Jimmy Carter who had refused to appear in a three-man debate). Speaking about the North American Free Trade Agreement, Perot described its effect on American jobs as causing a "giant sucking sound". Perot was ahead in the polls for a period of almost two months – a feat not accomplished by an independent candidate in almost 100 years. Perot lost much of his support when he temporarily withdrew from the election, only to declare himself a candidate again soon after.
Perot's almost 19% of the popular vote made him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Also, Ross Perot's 19% of the popular vote was the highest ever percent of the popular vote for a candidate who did not win any electoral votes.
Although he did not win any states, Perot managed to finish ahead of one of the two major party candidates in two states: In Maine, Perot received 30.44% of the vote to Bush's 30.39% (Clinton won Maine with 38.77%); in Utah, Perot received 27.34% of the vote to Clinton's 24.65% (Bush won Utah with 43.36%).
The election was the most recent in which Georgia and Montana voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. 1992 was also the first time a Democrat won the White House without winning the state of Texas and the second time that a Democrat won without winning the state of Florida (John F. Kennedy in 1960 was the first), and as of 2008, Clinton remains the only Democrat to win an election without carrying North Carolina. He was also the only Democrat at that point to win every electoral vote in the Northeast except for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Every Democrat since Clinton has repeated this result, except for Al Gore, who narrowly lost New Hampshire in 2000. Also, this was the first time since 1964 that many states voted Democratic, such as California, Colorado, Illinois, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Vermont.
Analysis
Several factors made the results possible. First, the campaign came on the heels of an economic slowdown. Exit polling shows that 75% thought the economy was in Fairly Bad or Very Bad shape while 63% thought their personal finances were better or the same as four years ago. The decision by Bush to accept a tax increase adversely affected his re-election bid. Pressured by rising budget deficits, Bush agreed to a budget compromise with Congress which raised taxes. Clinton was able to condemn the tax increase effectively on both its own merits and as a reflection of Bush's honesty. Effective Democratic TV ads were aired showing a clip of Bush's infamous 1988 campaign speech in which he promised "Read my lips ... No new taxes." Most importantly, Bush's coalition was in disarray, for both the aforementioned reasons and for unrelated reasons. The end of the Cold War allowed old rivalries among conservatives to re-emerge and meant that other voters focused more on domestic policy, to the detriment of Bush, a social and fiscal moderate. The consequence of such a perception depressed conservative turnout.
Unlike Bush, Clinton was able to unite his fractious and ideologically diverse party behind his candidacy, even when its different wings were in conflict. To garner the support of moderates and conservative Democrats, he attacked Sister Souljah, a little-known rap musician whose lyrics Clinton condemned. Furthermore, Clinton made clear his support of the death penalty and would later champion school uniforms. Clinton could also point to his centrist record as Governor of Arkansas. He was able to take back a number of Southern states that the GOP had been winning for almost two decades, and crucially, the New England states as well. More liberal Democrats were impressed by Clinton's record on abortion and affirmative action. His strong connections to African Americans also played a key role. In addition, he organized significant numbers of young voters and became a symbol of the rise of the Baby Boomer generation to political power. Supporters remained energized and confident, even in times of scandal or missteps.
The effect of Ross Perot's candidacy has been a contentious point of debate for many years. In the ensuing months after the election, various Republicans asserted that Perot had acted as a spoiler, enough to the detriment of Bush to lose him the election. While many disaffected conservatives may have voted for Ross Perot to protest Bush's tax increase, further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes nearly equally among Bush and Clinton, but of the voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important," two thirds voted for Bill Clinton. A mathematical look at the voting numbers reveals that Bush would have had to win 12.2% of Perot's 18.8% of the vote, 65% of Perot's support base, to earn a majority of the vote, and would have needed to win nearly every state Clinton won by less than five percentage points.
Furthermore, Perot's best results were in states that strongly favored either Clinton or Bush, or carried few electoral votes, limiting his real electoral impact for either candidate. Perot appealed to disaffected voters all across the political spectrum who had grown weary of the two-party system. NAFTA played a role in Perot's support, and Perot voters were relatively moderate on hot button social issues.
Clinton, Bush, and Perot did not focus on abortion during the campaign. Exit polls, however, showed that attitudes toward abortion "significantly influenced" the vote, as pro-choice Republicans defected from Bush.
Implications
Clinton's election ended an era in which the Republican Party had controlled the White House for 12 consecutive years, and for 20 of the previous 24 years. That election also brought the Democrats full control of the legislative and executive branches of the federal government, including both houses of U.S. Congress and the presidency, for the first time since the administration of the last Democratic president, Jimmy Carter. This would not last for very long, however, as the Republicans won control of both the House and Senate in 1994. Reelected in 1996, Clinton would become the first Democratic President since Franklin D. Roosevelt to serve two full terms in the White House.
1992 was arguably a "realigning" election. It made the Democratic Party dominant in presidential elections in the Northeast, the Great Lakes region, and the West Coast, where many states had previously either been swing states or Republican-leaning. Clinton picked up several states that went Republican in 1988, and which, have remained in the Democratic column ever since: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Vermont. Vermont, carried by Clinton, had been heavily Republican for generations prior to the election, voting for a Democrat only once (in 1964). The state has been won by the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since. California, which had previously been a Republican stronghold from 1952 to 1988, was now solidly Democratic. The fact that Bill Clinton, despite being a lifelong Southerner, won only four of eleven ex-Confederate states reflected the final shift of the South into the Republican Party.
