Signs of Revival, Slight but Sure, for Home Sales
USINFO | 2013-11-04 14:26

 

Analysts are hailing the beginnings of a recovery in the U.S. housing market. But to beleaguered homeowners, it will not feel like much of one for many months to come.

For several months, economic data and accounts from real estate agents across the country have calmed fears that the overall market could take another big step down, giving prospective home buyers some assurance that prices were stabilizing.

Yet the nascent recovery is still a convalescent one, with the pace of activity uneven and far below the levels reached before the bubble burst. Home prices remain under pressure in many markets.

In fact, Wednesday’s report from the National Association of Realtors showed that average sales prices actually dipped slightly from June to July. This seeming contradiction — increasing demand but anemic growth in home values — could represent a new normal in the housing market, experts said.

Real estate agents across the country cited the weak job market, stagnant wages and tight lending standards as continuing restraints on prices, despite pent-up demand and mortgage rates near record lows.

Even relatively optimistic observers like Michelle Meyer, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, foresaw only gradual improvements in home values. She expected home prices to rise 2 percent annually in 2012 and 2013, with momentum gradually increasing later in the decade. At that rate, the average home price would regain its 2006 peak in 2022.

“Inventory is lower and construction is incredibly depressed,” she said. “But it’s bumpy. We could see prices weaken slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.”

While new buyers might take comfort in the fact that deep declines in home values seem to have passed, more than 11 million current homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. In July, home sales were running at an annual pace of 4.47 million, an improvement over a year ago, but well below the high of 7.25 million reached in September 2005.

New-home sales also were picking up, lifting share prices for many home builders. A number of factors have helped nudge prices higher, including shrinking inventory — particularly on the more affordable end of the market. There is about a six-month supply of homes, according to the Realtors’ group, down from more than nine months last summer.

Concerns that a flood of distressed properties will soon hit the market were also receding. Banks have been taking more aggressive measures to avert foreclosures, which have been declining for almost two years, according to RealtyTrac.
 
In some areas, real estate brokers were skeptical that any improvement would be sustained.

Michael Parra, a real estate agent in Las Vegas, said investors who had been fueling the market with cash purchases were starting to get cold feet, fearing values would not appreciate further as long as incomes lag and jobs are scarce.

“You’re going to have a catfish market,” Mr. Parra said. “You know, catfish stay on the bottom and they occasionally jump up to the surface.”

Economists like to caution that there is no such thing as a national real estate market. Results vary widely from place to place, and some of the biggest increases in prices have come in parts of the country hit the hardest when the housing boom turned to bust.

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