The last time the Treasury Department took a big step with housing was in early 2011, when it outlined for Congress how it planned to overhaul housing finance. Incremental measures are being taken, but what’s still missing is a concrete commitment to start scaling back Fannie and Freddie’s role at a certain date.

“They still haven’t developed an actual transition plan for the companies that works toward a real reform goal,” said Jim Vogel, who analyzes debt markets for FTN Financial.

Mr. Cecala says that one easy step to implement would be to set out a timetable for reducing the size of the loans that Fannie and Freddie guarantee. Those mortgages above the limit would have to be financed by private entities in the mortgage market. But there is little appetite for such a move. “No one wants to get blamed for breaking the housing recovery,” Mr. Cecala said.

In reality, the status quo is likely to remain in the housing market for at least the next couple of years. After all, as the big profits pour in, the Treasury Department can look forward to getting back the money it plowed into Freddie and Fannie after the crisis. The taxpayers provided $116.1 billion of support to Fannie, which has paid the Treasury Department $35.6 billion in dividends out of its earnings.

And taxpayers could get a huge windfall from Fannie soon. The reason has to do with accounting. In 2008, Fannie set aside a large amount of money to reflect the possibility that it might not get to use an asset that allows it to reduces its taxes. It now appears that the set aside sum, $58.9 billion at the end of last year, is no longer needed, because the tax asset can be utilized.

Here’s how Fannie put it in a news release on Tuesday: “Fannie Mae expects to pay Treasury a significant dividend in the quarter following a release of the valuation allowance on the company’s deferred tax assets.” Mr. Vogel, the analyst, said Fannie could in theory borrow money to make a cash payment to the Treasury Department.

“Right now, Fannie and Freddie appear to be cash machines for the federal government,” Mr. Cecala said.